The Resource Management Division is requesting that your district’s enrolment estimates for the 2025/26, 2026/27 and 2027/28 school years be submitted to the ministry by Friday, February 14, 2025. The enrolment estimates received from school districts will be used by the ministry to facilitate the development of operating grant estimates. Operating grant estimates for 2025/26 will be announced on or before March 15, 2025.
Per section 106.3(2) of the School Act a board must submit to the Minister on or before February 15 of each year an estimate of the number of students who may be enrolled in educational programs provided by the board in the next school year.
As indicated in the enrolment estimates spreadsheet, specific estimated enrolment information is required for the following categories:
- July Enrolment Count, including headcount and course enrolment for Summer Learning
- September Enrolment Count, including school-age, adult, inclusive education, Indigenous Education and English Language Learning
- February Enrolment Count, including Continuing Education, Online Learning, inclusive education enrolment growth and newcomer refugees
- May Enrolment Count, including Continuing Education and Online Learning
Please also provide any key assumptions that your district has made in its 2025/26 estimates in the section below the main estimates table. This provides an opportunity to identify assumptions related to expected student exits and arrivals to your district with respect to independent schools, other provinces, other countries and other districts. An enrolment estimate checklist has also been included to assist with developing your district’s enrolment estimates.
Please add your school district’s estimated enrolment information to the District Estimated Enrolment columns of the attached spreadsheet and e-mail it to Michael Lebrun, Funding Analyst, at Michael.Lebrun@gov.bc.ca no later than February 14, 2025. Questions can be directed to Michael at the above address.
Enrolment Estimate Checklist, February 2025
This is a checklist tool that lists factors that may influence school enrolment. Please consider these in developing your revised 3-year forecast.
Of special note, districts overall typically underestimate their inclusive education categories when providing estimates to the ministry. Please pay extra attention to the patterns in your districts for these categories, for the relevant enrolment counts.
Did you consider?
- Proportional inclusive education enrolment typically experienced by the district
- Student movement to/from other districts. Did you contact neighbouring districts to gather more information if there are typically significant student inter-district movements?
- Movement to/from other provinces
- Movement to/from independent schools
- Kindergarten registrations; summer new registrations for the autumn
- Birthrate in your area (especially when considering out-years)
- Graduate departures or students staying on longer than normal, even beyond graduation
- New school openings/ or school closures in your district or in a nearby district, including independent school openings/closings
- Refugee student influx; and general immigration
- New nearby real estate developments attracting new families, either to/from district, e.g., proactively check local development permits and their progress toward completion and occupancy.
- Major new businesses coming into operation attracting new residents or shutting down and causing departures.
- Change or enhancement in policy/programs, e.g., mandatory Online Learning course registrations; enhanced Youth Train in Trades programs, new programs such as French Immersion or Academy schools
- Other regional or local sensitivities.
- Natural disasters impacts (fires, floods)
Other Resources:
You may also wish to consider reviewing the following economic and population information when developing your revised forecasts:
- The Government of Canada on October 24, 2024, announced targets for new immigrants for 2025 through 2027.
- BC Stats Quarterly Highlights, December 2024. As of October 1, 2024, the population of British Columbia reached an estimated 5,719,594, a net increase of 21,164 individuals compared to the previous quarter. In the previous 12 months, the population of BC grew by 125,633, an annual growth rate of 2.2%. This is the lowest annual population growth rate in BC since the first quarter of 2022. In the third quarter of 2024, 22,785 net migrants came to BC from countries outside of Canada. An estimated 8,488 net non-permanent residents arrived in BC over the quarter, the lowest number since the first quarter of 2022. Among net migrants to BC, permanent immigrants outnumbered non-permanent residents for the first time since the first quarter of 2023.
- BC Stats Sub-Provincial Population Projections Application by school district.
- BC government’s Major Projects Inventory for information on private and public construction projects across the province.
- Employment/unemployment rates by province, based on Labour Force Survey.
- Building permits by province.
- Other possible sources of information may include local municipal permitting departments, BC Real Estate Association reports, BC Business Council reports.