{"id":28531,"date":"2026-04-16T16:06:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T23:06:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/?p=28531"},"modified":"2026-04-17T08:12:11","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T15:12:11","slug":"spring-2026-seasonal-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/spring-2026-seasonal-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Spring 2026 Seasonal Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Heading into the 2026 wildfire season, fuel conditions across British Columbia reflect a combination of last summer\u2019s Drought Code, winter precipitation&nbsp;events&nbsp;and recent warm and dry conditions. These factors have influenced moisture levels across the landscape and will shape wildfire potential across the province in the coming months.&nbsp;Watch BC Wildfire Service&#8217;s lead fire weather forecaster, Matthew MacDonald, present the outlook below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Seasonal Preparedness Update - April 16, 2026\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dENigo5nOw4?start=1200&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Highlights of the seasonal outlook include the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wetter-than-normal conditions&nbsp;were&nbsp;recorded for B.C. in December prior to freeze-up&nbsp;which helped&nbsp;alleviate drought conditions for the majority of B.C., including the Coast and the Southeast. March was another wet month which helped to further alleviate drought concerns in many regions of the province.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite&nbsp;higher than average&nbsp;rainfall during the 2025 summer, the northeast&nbsp;region of B.C.&nbsp;remains&nbsp;an area of concern given the ongoing, multi-year drought conditions&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Moderate drought conditions also exist in&nbsp;the&nbsp;western parts of the Cariboo Fire Centre (Chilcotin) and the&nbsp;majority of the&nbsp;Kamloops Fire Centre<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher-than-normal winter freezing levels have resulted in record low snow at valley bottom. This increases the likelihood of early season grass fires in Interior valleys<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The severity of the 2026 wildfire season will&nbsp;largely&nbsp;depend&nbsp;on the&nbsp;amount and frequency of&nbsp;spring (May and June) precipitation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unfortunately, there is little or no skill in long range precipitation forecasting so stay&nbsp;tuned&nbsp;via the BC Wildfire Service app and&nbsp;social media<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Review of fuel conditions from late fall 2025&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The summer of 2025 was notable for persistent westerly flow and multiple weather systems moving in from the Pacific.&nbsp;Westerly flow patterns keep&nbsp;regions in the lee of the Coastal Mountain range subsident and dry. Drought Code measures the moisture content of organic layers at moderate depth and&nbsp;represents&nbsp;smoldering in deep duff layers and large logs. Higher Drought Code values&nbsp;indicate&nbsp;increased fire hazard. The elevated drought conditions&nbsp;can&nbsp;support the potential for&nbsp;very large&nbsp;fires and&nbsp;make for challenging&nbsp;fire suppression&nbsp;later&nbsp;in the season.&nbsp;Examples include&nbsp;the western Cariboo stretching west into the Chilcotin&nbsp;that concluded&nbsp;the season with&nbsp;exceptionally&nbsp;high&nbsp;Drought&nbsp;Code.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Kamloops Fire Centre experienced a very dry summer, while the northeast&nbsp;portion&nbsp;of the province saw some improvement in comparison to the last four to five summers. Both&nbsp;Fort St. John and Fort Nelson received&nbsp;near or&nbsp;slightly higher-than-average rainfall in&nbsp;both&nbsp;June and July,&nbsp;something we had not&nbsp;observed&nbsp;in several summers.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e33c6c34685&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"361\" height=\"360\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28558\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-4.png 361w, https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-4-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-4-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 361px) 100vw, 361px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge image\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure&nbsp;1. Drought code values on October 31, 2025,&nbsp;reflect the effects of seasonal drought prior to forests entering their dormant state.&nbsp;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Over-winter precipitation and change in moisture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throughout October and&nbsp;November,&nbsp;below-normal precipitation was recorded over central,&nbsp;northeastern&nbsp;and southern B.C.&nbsp;Temperatures were quite&nbsp;mild&nbsp;with very little&nbsp;frost or snow in the B.C.&nbsp;Interior.&nbsp;Active storm patterns brought&nbsp;several&nbsp;atmospheric&nbsp;rivers&nbsp;to B.C.&nbsp;in December,&nbsp;delivering&nbsp;copious&nbsp;amounts of&nbsp;precipitation. Given&nbsp;the&nbsp;mild and frost-free&nbsp;conditions, vegetation was able to absorb the abundant moisture and&nbsp;decrease Drought Codes.&nbsp;Regions that saw the greatest reduction in drought conditions include the&nbsp;coastal and&nbsp;southeastern&nbsp;regions&nbsp;of the province.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heading into the core of winter,&nbsp;the&nbsp;entire province experienced above-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions in January and February.&nbsp;In fact, for several Interior locations, it was the warmest winter in recorded history since the late 1800\u2019s.&nbsp;The latter part of the winter&nbsp;saw&nbsp;storms&nbsp;confined to&nbsp;northern regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e33c6c3823f&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"552\" height=\"455\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28536\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-1.png 552w, https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-1-300x247.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge image\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Figure 2. Monthly percent of precipitation for October 2025 through March 2026. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Snowpack overview&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Areas of below-normal snowpack show early concerns for drought conditions which could amplify fire behaviour this spring and summer. Higher-than-normal winter freezing levels have resulted in record low snow at valley bottoms, increasing the likelihood of early season grass fires in the Interior valleys.&nbsp;Below-normal regions include Vancouver Island,&nbsp;the&nbsp;South Coast,&nbsp;the&nbsp;Chilcotin,&nbsp;the&nbsp;Lower Fraser,&nbsp;the&nbsp;Lower and South Thompson&nbsp;regions&nbsp;and&nbsp;the&nbsp;Okanagan.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Current sea surface temperatures&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ocean plays a significant role in driving mid-to-long range weather forecasts. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures offshore contributed to higher freezing levels&nbsp;earlier&nbsp;this season. Meanwhile, La Ni\u00f1a, which&nbsp;is defined by below normal&nbsp;sea surface&nbsp;temperatures&nbsp;in&nbsp;the equatorial Pacific, persisted into January. As of mid-March 2026, the equatorial Pacific is transitioning from declining La Ni\u00f1a conditions toward neutral&nbsp;El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. The latest seasonal&nbsp;forecast&nbsp;guidance favours a transition towards strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions beginning in June-July. While El Ni\u00f1o will increase the chances of a warmer than normal summer, the correlation between El Ni\u00f1o&#8217;s and fire activity in western Canada remains inconclusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Spring 2026: start-up conditions&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>High Drought Code values&nbsp;indicate&nbsp;an&nbsp;increased potential for extreme fire behaviour and can make wildfires more difficult to control. Even with normal spring precipitation, areas affected by multi-year drought, particularly the Northeast, the Chilcotin and the South Thompson, are expected to carry elevated Drought Code values into spring 2026. Moderate drought conditions also persist in the Cariboo Fire Centre and the Kamloops Fire Centre&nbsp;more broadly. The overall severity of the 2026 wildfire season will&nbsp;largely depend&nbsp;on precipitation&nbsp;amounts&nbsp;in May and June.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e33c6c3be29&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"484\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-id=\"28546\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28546\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-2.png 975w, https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-2-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-2-768x381.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge image\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;69e33c6c3f947&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"382\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-id=\"28551\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28551\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-3.png 768w, https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/786\/2026\/04\/image-3-300x149.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge image\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n<figcaption class=\"blocks-gallery-caption wp-element-caption\">Figure 3. Forecasted temperature anomaly for April though July 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Heading into the 2026 wildfire season, fuel conditions across British Columbia reflect a combination of last summer\u2019s Drought Code, winter precipitation&nbsp;events&nbsp;and recent warm and dry conditions. These factors have influenced moisture levels across the landscape and will shape wildfire potential across the province in the coming months.&nbsp;Watch BC Wildfire Service&#8217;s lead fire weather forecaster, Matthew &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/spring-2026-seasonal-outlook\/\">Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3183,"featured_media":7932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[543,52,116],"class_list":["post-28531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-seasonal-outlook","tag-app","tag-fire-weather","tag-wildfire-preparedness"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3183"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28531"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28531\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28627,"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28531\/revisions\/28627"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.gov.bc.ca\/bcwildfire\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}